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The 2015-16 Spending Round

Chancellor George Osborne announced details of the 2015-16 Spending Round on 26 June 2013.

On Thursday 27 June, the day after the Spending Round, the Institute for Fiscal Studies held a lunchtime briefing at The Building Centre, Store Street, London. The presentation provided an opportunity to hear a considered view of the Chancellor's announcements from Institute staff.

Presentations from the briefing can be downloaded from the following links:

Paul Johnson

Spending review 2013: opening remarks: Text (pdf)

Gemma Tetlow

"We shall squeeze... until the pips squeak": Slides (pdf)

Jonathan Cribb

Public sector pay and employment: Slides (pdf)

Luke Sibieta

School funding reform: Slides (pdf)

Carl Emmerson

Controlling Annually Managed Expenditure: Slides (pdf)



IFS/IfG Spending Round Background Briefing

On Friday 7 June the IFS and the Institute for Government (IfG) hosted a background briefing for members of the press. This event took place at the IfG. The presentation and publication accompanying the briefing are below.

Do it yourself Spending Round

Those wishing to see what the Spending Round might mean for the budgets of individual Whitehall departments may want to use our interactive spreadsheet.

Budget 2013 analysis and presentation slides

The slides delivered at a briefing by IFS staff the day after the 2013 Budget are below.

Green Budget 2013 analysis and presentation slides

The IFS Green Budget 2013, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, was published on 6th February. The document and slides from the launch are available here. In particular, the analysis includes chapters looking at:

Public finances

  • In an IFS observation 'Cutting the deficit: three years down, five to go?', Gemma Tetlow examines the progress of the government's fiscal consolidation plan.
  • The IFS produces a monthly bulletin analysing recent developments in the government's public finance figures.
  • In a Public Finance Magazine article, Biting the bullet on fiscal targets, Carl Emmerson and Gemma Tetlow discussed the Chancellor's fiscal rules and the merits of abandoning his supplementary debt target.
  • In The Fiscal Challenge Ahead, IFS researchers outline the significant challenges we face as a result of the spending pressures created by population ageing and a likely loss of tax revenues from motoring and north sea oil and gas companies.

Public spending

  • Rowena Crawford and Paul Johnson examine what is happening to the composition of public spending in The rapidly changing state, an IFS observation.
  • In an IFS observation, researchers examine the Chancellor’s previously stated intention to reduce welfare expenditure by a further £10 billion per year by 2016–17 and explore where the cuts might be made.
  • IFS researchers produced a Briefing Note, examining the changing composition of public spending. They find that the shape of the state today is very different from that of 30 years ago and that spending on health, pensions and long term care is set to take up a far greater share of public expenditure unless there is significant reform, or unless total spending is significantly increased.
  • A briefing note on Pensioners and the tax and benefit system, examines the ways in which the proposals produced by the Dilnot Commission on the Funding of Care and Support could be funded.
  • A report on NHS and social care funding: the outlook to 2021/22 examines what can be expected once the current period of broadly flat NHS funding in real terms ends in 2014-15.

Taxation and welfare benefits

  • IFS researchers have compiled a list of tax and benefit changes in each Budget since 1979.
  • In two recent observations, IFS researchers examine The Effects of the Welfare Benefits Up-rating Bill and review the key features of the new 'High Income Child Benefit charge'.
  • We examine the pensions White Paper detailing plans to replace the current Basic State Pension and State Second Pension with a single state pension in an IFS observation.
  • Here we discuss the merits of two policies: the reintroduction of a 10% income tax rate on a narrow band of income and a ‘mansion tax’ on residential properties worth more than £2 million.
  • In a Fiscal Studies journal article, researchers analyse the likely effects of introducing a new Universal Credit.
  • In a report, Fairer by design: efficient tax reform for those on low to middle incomes, Paul Johnson draws on the Mirrlees Review of taxation to identify key reforms that could help to ease the squeeze on living standards by making the UK tax and benefit systems both more efficient and fair.
  • In Tax by Design, the Mirrlees Review editorial team present a picture of coherent tax reform. Its aim is to identify the characteristics of a good tax system, to assess the extent to which the UK tax system conforms to these ideals, and to recommend how it might realistically be reformed in that direction.

Living standards

  • In “Really, we’re in it together”, Paul Johnson looks at the extent to which falling household incomes have been equally spread across the income distribution.
  • In Poverty and Inequality in the UK: 2012, IFS researchers assess the changes to average incomes, inequality and poverty, with a particular focus on the changes that have occurred in the latest year of data (2010-11).
  • In an IFS observation Measuring and addressing child poverty, IFS researchers take the opportunity to reflect upon what child poverty is and how it should be measured, and to discuss current government thinking in this policy area.
  • A chapter from the Green Budget 2013, Tax and welfare reforms planned for 2013-14, gives an overview of the tax and welfare reforms currently planned for the coming financial year and their likely impact on household incomes.
  • An IFS Commentary, Child and working-age poverty from 2010 to 2020, presents forecasts of relative and absolute income poverty in the UK among children and working-age adults for each year between 2010-11 and 2015-16, and for 2020-21.

Fiscal facts

Election 2010

Our analysis for the election looked at the Labour Government’s record and at the three main UK parties' proposals. The work was funded by the Nuffield Foundation.

Official documentation

The Treasury's home page links to previous and current Budget documentation. The Office for Budget Responsibility's publications and economic and fiscal forecasts can be found here.