Report (C097)

The IFS Green Budget 2005

Date: 27 January 2005
Authors:
Publisher: IFS
ISBN: 978-1-903274-40-8
DOI: 10.1920/co.ifs.2005.0097

The Green Budget 2005 was edited by Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson, David Miles and Zoë Oldfield, and copy-edited by Judith Payne.

It was produced in collaboration with Morgan Stanley and with additional funding from the ESRC-funded Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy at IFS.

  in collaboration with

Chapter 1: SUMMARY

Chapter 2: FISCAL POLICY FRAMEWORK

2.1 Introduction
2.2 Gordon Brown's fiscal rules
2.3 Forecasting the public finances
2.4 Meeting the golden rule
2.5 Meeting the sustainable investment rule
2.6 Reforming the fiscal framework
2.7 Conclusions

Chapter 3: THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

3.1 Introduction
3.2 Recent developments
3.3 The cycle, trend growth and spare capacity
3.4 Risks to the Pre-Budget Report forecast

Chapter 4: PUBLIC FINANCE FORECASTS

4.1 Introduction
4.2 Short-term projections
4.3 Medium-term prospects
4.4 Alternative macroeconomic assumptions
4.5 The fiscal rules and the Budget judgement

Chapter 5: FUNDING ISSUES AND DEBT MANAGEMENT

5.1 Introduction
5.2 The outlook for the scale of debt issuance
5.3 How should government finance its cash needs?
5.4 The demand for fixed income assets: pension funds and life insurance companies
5.5 The supply/demand imbalance
5.6 Scope for government action

Chapter 6: THE TAX BURDEN UNDER LABOUR

6.1 Introduction
6.2 The tax burden in historical context
6.3 Government revenues and policy decisions
6.4 Government revenues and general elections

Chapter 7: THE DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF TAX AND BENEFIT REFORMS SINCE 1997

7.1 Introduction
7.2 Tax and benefit reforms since 1997
7.3 How do we allocate tax/benefit payments to households?
7.4 Distributional analysis of fiscal reforms since 1997
7.5 Conclusion

Chapter 8: ISSUES IN BUSINESS TAXATION

8.1 Introduction
8.2 Corporation tax under pressure
8.3 Small business taxation

Chapter 9: REFORMS TO CHILDCARE POLICY

9.1 Introduction
9.2 Why intervene in the childcare market?
9.3 The childcare tax credit
9.4 Expansion of free nursery provision
9.5 Conclusions

Chapter 10: APPENDICES

Appendix A: Forecasting public finances
Appendix B: Budgets since 1979
Appendix C: Headline tax and benefit rates and thresholds
Appendix D: Tax revenues ready reckoner

© The Institute for Fiscal Studies, January 2005